Note: I am not a financial analyst or pundit. I don’t have hard numbers, just vibes.
I joined the surf industry as a designer in 2007. This was the absolute apex of that industry. Lavish parties, events, travel, and athletes' salaries were all in abundance. Companies like Billabong, Quiksilver, and Volcom were doing sales in the BILLIONS.
In 2008, the housing bubble burst and it changed the landscape for everyone. Retailers tumbled, brands lost POs or got stiffed on bills. Cash flow was a problem. Surfers who were getting paid were cut from the roster.
At the same time, there was a rise in streetwear brands. Diamond Supply, Crooks & Castles, OBEY, and The Hundreds were stealing the shine of the surf industry. Rap and hip-hop were trending upward, and rock and hipster music was trending down.
In my view, somewhere around 2012, surf brands had lost cultural relevance. The surf industry wasn’t offering much new—it was a soup of similar aesthetics across many different brands. Brands became completely indistinguishable.
During this time, I was working at Nike designing action sports graphics. While the Nike SB footwear had a hold on the market, the apparel never truly got its footing.
To penetrate the market, brands like Nike were offering very favorable terms to retailers: "If it doesn’t sell, send it back! Buy now, pay later!" I wasn’t privy to all these terms, but I think this made it near impossible for small brands to gain traction in wholesale. Coveted retail essentially became consignment.
In a consolidated retail landscape, with much less cultural cachet, we’ve continued to see a disinterest in many of the surf brands I grew up with. Cut to 2024, private equity and holding companies own most of the brands that led the industry. The marquee sponsors of surf tour events are often beverage companies.
In the post-industry era, there is a newer batch of fun, hungry, and ambitious companies—and many of them are offering a new aesthetic. Some look western, like Seager and Howler Bros. Some other brands are trafficking in a golden era of surfing like Almond. There are core surf brands like AVVA. There’s a swell of brands with an athletic bent: Bylt, Vuori, and the newly released Tenore brand—started by the RVCA founder.
With current interest rates being much higher than in 2020, I think we see a much more sturdy surf brand landscape. The liquidity is all gone. There are no bankers snatching up brands. I imagine M&A folk are having a tough time. Nothing’s cheap, and e-commerce has gotten more expensive. If a brand can exist in this time, with little institutional investment, I believe these companies are much more resilient.
It looks dramatically different than it did in 2007. And, consumers have much more variety. I’m excited for what’s on the horizon.